Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
Deregulating petrol and diesel prices has been on the cards since the crude oil prices came down by $100 from the historic high of $147 a barrel, a few weeks back. But with the rates climbing again, doubts are being cast if prices can actually be freed. Crude oil prices are ruling at $71-72 a barrel, a seven-month high.
The price of the Indian basket of crude oil touched an all-time high of $75.30 per barrel on Thursday, the latest day for which data are available, sending alarm bells ringing in the government.
Low oil prices drove the growth in states' share faster than expected, says Abhishek Waghmare.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
With volatile international oil prices costing the country $43 billion in import bill, energy-hungry India has called for forging enduring partnerships between oil producing and consuming countries to contain the effect of surging oil prices.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped the most by 5.54 per cent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank. However, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
India, which imports over 80 per cent of its oil needs, spent $87.7 billion on importing 220.43 million tonne (MT) of crude oil in 2017-18. For 2018-19, the imports are pegged at almost 227 MT.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
International crude prices, which rose to a historic high of over $147 a barrel in July last year, have slumped to four-year low of around $37 per barrel, prompting fears that companies may not invest in new fields. Several oil companies have put on hold investments in small and marginal fields and in difficult and frontier areas following the sharp dip in prices as current rates give a negative rate of return on the huge investments required.
By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is "comfortable" with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Privatisation of old oil fields to raise output and reduce India's import dependence was advised by the Economic Survey.
The government said on Monday it is examining whether domestic petrol and diesel prices can be reduced in line with the fall in global crude oil prices.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Expecting oil prices to remain under pressure, Fitch Ratings said deregulation of diesel prices in October will help in lowering the under-recoveries (which is nothing but international petroleum prices minus the subsidised retail rates).
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Thursday after two days of decline, mirroring a rally in global markets as a US court blocked President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 320.70 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 81,633.02.
The outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors to drive stock market sentiments this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude are also crucial aspects to watch out for.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said India will never compromise the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers, asserting that he would be ready to pay any price.
Stressing that there was no alternative except to raise the prices of petroleum products, Union Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, has said the oil companies will incur a loss of Rs 30,000 to Rs 40,000 crore.
The government should scrap the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil as the levy is adversely impacting the capex-intensive exploration of oil and gas, the industry said in its recommendation for the forthcoming annual Budget. India first imposed windfall profit taxes on July 1, joining a growing number of nations that tax super normal profits of energy companies. At that time, a Rs 23,250 per tonne ($40 per barrel) windfall profit tax on domestic crude production was levied.
State-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC) on Tuesday said it is losing about Rs 3 on the sale of every litre of petrol, but will decide on raising prices at an "appropriate" time.
Petrol and diesel prices on Wednesday were hiked by 80 paise a litre each for the second day in a row since the ending of an over four-and-half month hiatus in rate revision. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 97.01 per litre as against Rs 96.21 previously while diesel rate has gone up from Rs 87.47 per litre to Rs 88.27, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
Surging global crude oil prices failed to shore up customs revenue substantially as India Inc resorted to advance licence scheme, which allows duty-free imports for value-added exports.
Implementation of Kirit Parikh Committee recommendations looks bleak and the industry's expectation that all petroleum products including crude oil & natural gas should be included under GST is set to be turned down.
Chinese import tariffs have unwittingly come to India's assistance to help boost imports of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at rates cheaper than what it pays for supplies from West Asia, according to industry sources and shipping data.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
With international crude oil prices spiralling to a 12-year high at over $37 a barrel, Petroleum Minister Ram Naik pinned hopes on Finance Minister announcing some fiscal measures to avoid a certain increase in prices of petroleum products,
Every time the Indian economy has faced headwinds due to international developments, the oil sector has played a crucial role, explains A K Bhattacharya.
In one of the steepest increases since daily price revision was started, petrol price on Thursday was hiked by 25 paise per litre and diesel by 30 paise as oil companies raised rates for the third straight day to pass on to consumers the increase in international oil prices.
Amid the crisis in Libya, increase in fuel prices would become 'inevitable' if crude oil remains at $100 per barrel, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said on Monday.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
What is more surprising is that a surge in Russian oil supplies has come after the G7 imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise this year as Iranian oil sanctions will lead to a drop in oil supply.
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